It's been said in the press that people don't care about the Oscars this year. I myself was surprised to find them to be less than a week from now, or maybe I was surprised that they haven't been given out already. Slumdog Millionaire has been said to have the "momentum" of the "pre-awards season buzz," so will likely win most of its 10 Oscar nomations. Maybe that's sapped the momentum.
I think, though, the change in 2003 to move the Oscars up a month, and shorten the voting season by a month has made the Oscars not only duller and more predictable, but made the movie industry in and of itself even more obsessed with the things it says about it itself. Because Oscar ballots are due so shortly after the new year, people vote for the movies already winning awards, just because they're easier to catch. Worse, because of that, there's so much campaigning on each coast to try and get into those ever-important LA and NYC film circle awards that there just isn't even enough time to tell the false prophets from the good movies. This year has had many stories written about Harvey Weinstein's ability to make The Reader a nominee for Best Picture, and even a contender, but what remains to be seen is if anyone outside of the movie industry cares. The Reader still in ten weeks has made $18 million. Even the pre-awards sure-thing, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button turned out to be a flash in the pan whose gross depended on how many people talked about it before anyone had seen it. After having seen it, does anyone feel like they've fallen in love with a movie? I'll let you know if I hear from someone who has.
But it wasn't a bad year for movies, not at all. Rather than rehash how "out of touch" the Academy is to have not nominated Wall-E or The Dark Knight for Best Picture, I'd like to suggest an alternative complaint: The Academy simply no longer has the time or objectivity to determine its own taste. Maybe the late March awards need to come back, just so people can figure out what the hell happened in the previous year of movies. Here are my picks for who should win the awards, based on my own taste, and perhaps some alternatives.
Best Picture
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Milk
Who's Missing? Elegy, The Wrestler, The Dark Knight, Wall-E, Happy-Go-Lucky
Like each of the recent years, this Best Picture category was mostly picked a long time ago, and when the nominations were announced, it felt fairly underwhelming. I think if nominations were announced in mid February, like they were before 5 years ago, The Wrestler would have really benefited from the popularity it built as an art-house favorite. In any case, I'd still likely pick Milk as the superior picture of the year - the rousing, specific biopic of Harvey Milk that stuns you with the human attachment you build beneath all of its politics. Now, friends have pointed out to me - rightly, I think - that a conventional biopic really shouldn't stand as any Movie of the Year, and I do think a couple of movies were better (namely, Elegy and The Wrestler), but Milk is the type of biopic I can see myself turning to if I need a good weeper, or to just see a spectacular performance. Of the remaining nominees, I'll admit I haven't seen The Reader and feel it's too much of an assignment to sit through, despite my love for Kate Winslet. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, I'm fairly certain, is terrible - it's Old Man does Forrest Gump, before it's a completely unconvincing love story (wait, and a, um, statement on Hurricane Katrina), and Frost/Nixon is sort of interesting history leading up to one fairly excellent scene, not a good full movie. I like Slumdog Millionaire, but as a longtime Danny Boyle fan, I must say I missed the passion and thrill I felt in Trainspotting and Millions or even 28 Days Later.
Best Director
Will and Should Win: Danny Boyle Slumdog Millionaire
Who's Missing? Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight, Jonathan Demme Rachel Getting Married, Mike Leigh Happy-Go-Lucky
I may have missed the passion and thrill of his earlier movies, but what Boyle proves in Slumdog is the same thing that he proved in some of his other just-good movies, like Sunshine and 28 Days Later, that the movie is just lucky to find him. So stylized and intense, Boyle knows just how to make a movie look, knows just the right buttons to push. It's easy to remember the scene of poor Latika in the rain outside of the train car, of young Jamal plunging into a pile of poo to meet a famous actor, or that astonishing overhead shots of Jamal and Salim running through the slums of Mumbai. For individual scenes, Boyle deserves the recognition as one of the greatest talents in the world. Did he bring the authority of some other great directors this year? No, despite vision, I didn't find the same control that Nolan or Demme or Leigh brought to their better movies - but they had better material.
Best Actor
Will Win: Mickey Rourke The Wrestler
Should Win: Rourke, or Sean Penn in Milk
Who's Missing? Christian Bale The Dark Knight, Ben Kingsley Elegy, James Franco Pineapple Express
My "Who's Missing" here is relatively nitpicky, which is why I can't quite bring myself to pick a winner here either. Does it really matter if Rourke or Penn wins? How lucky are we to get two performances this astonishing in a year? I suppose my gut really goes with Rourke, who's fearless, physical, and so wounded in The Wrestler, a movie that is so much more than a performance piece because it's such a great performance piece - because Rourke inhabits the role and reveals a life. Lucky for us, so does Penn in Milk, and these are clearly the two finest male performances this year.
Best Actress
Will Win: Kate Winslet The Reader
Should Win: Meryl Streep Doubt
Who's Missing? Penelope Cruz Elegy, Sally Hawkins Happy-Go-Lucky
I do, very much, believe that Cruz gave the performance of the year in Elegy, but in a year that half the people saw that movie that had seen the already-not-seen-by-many Vicky Cristina Barcelona, I'm more than happy to see her walk away with Best Supporting Actress, which she deserves. Too bad she deserves to win both categories, which is what people once thought Winslet would do if The Reader had been considered eligible for Best Supporting Actress. I do think that Winslet is one of the greatest actresses in the world, but without seeing The Reader, I think that this win is a product of sympathy and marketing - I'd much rather retroactively give her the Oscar for Little Children or Sense and Sensibility. There were two astonishingly vivid, challenging performances this year - this seems to be the thing to do to get Oscar nominations, and it's a trick I'm happy to fall for over and over again - in Anne Hathaway's Rachel Getting Married work and Melissa Leo in Frozen River. Both are so extraordinary, and so deserving. My heart is too, in some way, with Leo, who I fell in love with watching Homicide in the mid-90's, seeing those searing eyes poking out from that fiery mane of hair. But Streep in Doubt made me feel the impossible - a world of sympathy and understanding for a world of order and "certainty" that is Streep's battered core in Doubt. I never expected to be so moved and fascinated by the performance, but that is perhaps why the greatness of Streep has become so expected as to be forgettable - a mistake if I ever heard one.
Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: Heath Ledger The Dark Knight
Who's Missing: Eddie Marsan Happy-Go-Lucky, James Franco Milk, Richard Dreyfuss W.
Some of the Oscar haters this year have said they don't think the Academy would "recognize a comic book performance" if Ledger had still been alive, a way to critique the Academy's tastes while agreeing with them. I think that even had Ledger lived, he'd be the front-runner for this award, and he'd win. His Joker is a sort of instant icon, so immediate and unignorable from the moment he speaks - even before he walks on! - that it would have been too much to ignore, much like Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood last year, or Helen Mirren in The Queen. The performances have become, in our everything-is-analyzed-immeidately culture, part of our contemporary understanding of the current state of movie-making. Add to that that I can barely even muster goodwill for the other four - Josh Brolin in Milk? James Franco was that movie's breakout performance, for his quiet, unshakable chemistry with Sean Penn; Brolin was serviceable, and got consolation votes for those not voting for his work in W. Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder? Obnoxious. Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt? Serviceable, but for Hoffman, it's work he could do in his sleep; it never made me feel his conflicts with Meryl Streep were battles of equals. And as for Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Shannon is a terrific actor (see him seethe in 2007's Bug), his performance revealed the movie's unswallowably self-serving pessimism; his crazy-man-who-speaks-the-truth didn't have much of a life of his own except to propel Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio into arguments about "the truth" of things. To me, it was the lie of things, and a nasty one.
Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Penelope Cruz Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Who's Missing? Nursel Köse The Edge of Heaven, Nürgel Yesilcay The Edge of Heaven, Ari Graynor Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist
This one's a no-brainer. Cruz pops in halfway into Vicky Cristina and isn't just a jolt to the movie, she's the core of its sex-and-love-caldron hippie idealism - and better, she coaxes you right into her unstable arms. This is the role that allowed Cruz, like nothing since Blow, indulge the heights of her vulnerability and sexiness, allowed her to give in to all of her wildness. And, since she wasn't nominated for that even-better performance in Elegy that also showed that spark coming to life, she just deserves this. Of the other nominees, I think both Amy Adams (for Doubt) and Taraji P. Henson (for Benjamin Button) are extremely talented, but their performances are nothing special. Marisa Tomei is the conflicted heart of the real world in The Wrestler, and I'm happy she's getting some of the respect she's deserved all along for her great work here. And Viola Davis is certainly a spoiler here - a ten-minute tete-a-tete with Meryl Streep that proves her a sad, wise equal, which is about as great of a compliment as anyone deserves. I'd love those performances to be side by side with the hilarious drunkard Ari Graynor in Nick and Norah (that gum in the toilet scene!), or either of the mother-daughter team in The Edge of Heaven of Köse and Yesilcay that connects us with that movies globetrotting loose threads. Critics centerd on The Edge of Heaven this year because of Hanna Schygullah, a German legend from Fassbinder's old 70's films, but hers, wonderful as she is, doesn't have the emotional ease and truth of those two central performances - Köse, who is scarred but shows the same temerity and anger that comes out in Yesilcay's enraged protestor.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Milk
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Wall-E
In a surprising category, I'm moved enough by the cleverness of the Wall-E Earth to beat great indie writing in Frozen River and Happy-Go-Lucky, and the smart politics of Milk. Also nominated is the forgotten January 2008 release In Bruges, what a shock, eh?
Who's Missing? Rachel Getting Married, Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Doubt
John Patrick Shanley had perhaps the easiest job of all the nominees - to make an already pretty cinematic stage play slightly wider and make it work for great actors. Still, the only nominee that isn't nominated for Best Picture, Doubt is the briskest and most interesting on the page of any of the nominees, tantalizing in its mysterious clues to something that doesn't connect because all it should make us do is doubt, but with the certainty that an answer lurks somewhere.
Who's Missing? Elegy and The Dark Knight, of course!